Dr. Stephen S. Schneck, Director of the Institute for Policy Research at Catholic University, has an important piece on the “Catholic vote” this week.
Schneck breaks the Catholic population down into three distinct groups: Latino Catholics who mirror earlier Catholic immigrants in their ethnic ties to the Democratic party, “cultural Catholics” who have lower levels of mass attendance and mixed political views, and “intentional Catholics” who by virtue of not having left the Church, are “distilled” down to a more conservative group who “actively choose to embrace the church and its teachings” and “are motivated by economic issues and increasingly by opposition to abortion, same-sex marriage and illegal immigration.”
These observations seem to fit with John Sides’s analysis of presidential approval polls which tentatively suggested that Obama’s “political hit” among Catholics after the release of his administration’s contraception regulations appeared to occur largely among a limited group of Catholics who already disapprove of the President and are unlikely to vote for him anyway.
Michael Sean Winters adds:
It is true that Catholics as a whole, due to assimilation, now reflect the electorate as a whole. There are conservative Catholics on one side and liberal Catholics on the other. In between, are the Catholic swing voters. What distinguishes Catholics as a religious group in politics, then, is not that they vote as a bloc but that a significant number of them remain up for grabs, which is not necessarily true of other religious cohorts within the electorate.
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The results of this week’s Florida primary raise serious questions about the political influence of Religious Right leaders. As Amy Sullivan has pointed out, conservative Christian elites – men like James Dobson, Tony Perkins, the late Jerry Falwell – have rarely seen their favorite candidate win the GOP presidential nomination. I’m sure they’re used to settling for second best by now, but this year’s contest must be particularly frustrating.
As we’ve noted before a who’s-who of the religious right had an emergency summit in Texas just two weeks ago for the expressed purpose of coalescing around a conservative candidate, and the implicit purpose of stopping Mitt Romney. Nonetheless, Romney cruised to a crushing victory in Florida. Rick Santorum, the group’s favorite, finished a distant third, and Newt Gingrich, their second choice, finished 14 points behind Romney and outperformed him among white evangelicals by a mere two percentage points.
In other words, it would be tough to argue that these religious right leaders had any effect in Florida. But before we go declaring them dead, it’s important to note that while their influence over the outcome of the primary was negligible, the fact that every candidate espouses social conservative positions indicates that they’re still agenda setters in the GOP.
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One of the most important observations from Saturday’s South Carolina primary results was the apparent lack of impact the “evangelical endorsement” of Santorum by prominent Religious Right figures had on the race.
Mindful of ongoing division around a crop of candidates that failed to inspire the Christian conservative community, James Dobson, Donald Wildmon and Gary Bauer organized a summit of Religious Right leaders in Texas the weekend before the primary to coalesce around one candidate. (Presumably, they were also trying to avoid repeating history, given the conventional wisdom that this same group’s delay in rallying around Mike Huckabee in 2008 inadvertently contributed to the nomination of the less palatable John McCain)
Not only did the summit fail to unify the Religious Right (before the group’s agreed-upon 24-hour period of silence ended, leaks were already calling into question the legitimacy of the vote result), but the resulting “endorsement” also failed to generate support for Santorum among primary voters.
The graph below shows aggregate polling over time, measuring likely voters’ support for Gingrich and Santorum in South Carolina leading up to the election:
Note how Santorum’s numbers show actually dropped a bit after the summit on the 14th. Gingrich, of course, was the candidate who ended up taking off, presumably on the strength of his debate appearances that week. The final vote total (40.4% for Gingrich, 17% for Santorum) was only a few points off the average of the final day of polling.
Writing in the Christian Science Monitor, emergent evangelical Jonathan Merritt adds some more context to this phenomenon:
South Carolina is about as evangelical as states come, and Rick Santorum is about as perfect a match as gun-toting, grit-loving God-fearers could hope for. It says something about the state of evangelicalism when 65 percent of them would rather choose between a thrice-married “champion of family values” and questionably pro-life Mormon than the candidate anointed by the evangelical elites. Perhaps South Carolina has made clear what has been true for some time – that Christians are not monolithic and the American political process will no longer be significantly shaped by a handful of partisan religious leaders.
While it’s certainly accurate to point out that the king-making influence of these handful of Religious Right stalwarts seems to be greatly diminished, it would be dangerous to extrapolate too far and suggest this represents the end of the Christian right as a whole.
A quick glance at the current GOP platform testifies to the success the movement has had shaping the Republican party to its own likeness. Ed Kilgore explains:
Unlike 2008, no candidate in the field is pro-choice by any definition. Only Ron Paul seems reluctant to enact a national ban on same-sex marriage. Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Herman Cain have been vocal in fanning the flames of Islamophobia; again, only Paul has bothered to dissent to any significant degree.
Mitt Romney, of course, has a history on cultural issues that instills mistrust among many on the Christian Right. But his current positions bring him entirely in accord with social conservative priorities, and if he were elected, he would enter office more committed to Christian Right goals than any president in history. And if he is the nominee, he will likely choose a running-mate (and potential successor) who will, like McCain’s in 2008 (after social conservatives essentially vetoed his first and second choices), delight the Christian Right.
While future candidates may feel less obliged to kiss the rings of Religious Right powerbrokers, so long as religious conservatives continue to make up a significant portion of the Republican primary voter pool, I wouldn’t expect radical changes in the increasingly conservative positions GOP candidates espouse.
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More than 40 national Catholic leaders and prominent theologians at universities across the country released a strongly worded open letter today urging “our fellow Catholics Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum to stop perpetuating ugly racial stereotypes on the campaign trail.”
In the lead up to Saturday’s primary in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich has frequently blasted President Obama as a “food stamp president” and implied that some African Americans are more content to collect welfare benefits than work. Rick Santorum attracted scrutiny for telling Iowa voters he doesn’t want “to make black people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money.”
The open letter reminds the two presidential candidates, vying for Christian conservative voters, that U.S. Catholic bishops have called racism an “intrinsic evil” and consistently defend vital government programs such as food stamps and unemployment benefits that help struggling Americans.
The full text of the statement and signatories follow.
An Open Letter to Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum
As Catholic leaders who recognize that the moral scandals of racism and poverty remain a blemish on the American soul, we challenge our fellow Catholics Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum to stop perpetuating ugly racial stereotypes on the campaign trail. Mr. Gingrich has frequently attacked President Obama as a “food stamp president” and claimed that African Americans are content to collect welfare benefits rather than pursue employment. Campaigning in Iowa, Mr. Santorum remarked: “I don’t want to make black people’s lives better by giving them somebody else’s money.” Labeling our nation’s first African-American president with a title that evokes the past myth of “welfare queens” and inflaming other racist caricatures is irresponsible, immoral and unworthy of political leaders.
Some presidential candidates now courting “values voters” seem to have forgotten that defending human life and dignity does not stop with protecting the unborn. We remind Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum that Catholic bishops describe racism as an “intrinsic evil” and consistently defend vital government programs such as food stamps and unemployment benefits that help struggling Americans. At a time when nearly 1 in 6 Americans live in poverty, charities and the free market alone can’t address the urgent needs of our most vulnerable neighbors. And while jobseekers outnumber job openings 4-to-1, suggesting that the unemployed would rather collect benefits than work is misleading and insulting.
As the South Carolina primary approaches, we urge Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Santorum and all presidential candidates to reject the politics of racial division, refrain from offensive rhetoric and unite behind an agenda that promotes racial and economic justice.
Francis X. Doyle
Associate General Secretary
U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops (retired)
Sisters of Mercy of the Americas Institute Leadership Team:
Sisters Patricia McDermott, RSM (President) Eileen Campbell, RSM Anne Curtis, RSM Mary Pat Gavin, RSM Deborah Troillett, RSM
Sister Pat Farrell, OSF
President
Leadership Conference of Women Religious
Rev. Bryan N. Massingale
Associate Professor of Theology
Marquette University
Rev. Clete Kiley
Director for Immigration Policy
UNITE HERE
Rev. Anthony J. Pogorelc, M.Div., Ph.D.
The Catholic University of America
Institute for Policy Research & Catholic Studies
Rev. David Hollenbach, S.J.
University Chair in Human Rights and International Justice
Boston College
Sr. Patricia J. Chappell, SNDdeN
Executive Director, Pax Christi USA
Marie Dennis
Co-President, Pax Christi International
Rev. John F. Kavanaugh S.J.
Professor of Philosophy
St. Louis University
Rev. Jim Keenan, S.J.
Founders Professor in Theology
Boston College
Rev. Thomas J. Reese, S.J.
Senior Fellow
Woodstock Theological Center
Georgetown University
Sister Mary Ellen Howard
Executive Director
Cabrini Clinic, Detroit
Rev. James E. Hug, S.J.
President
Center of Concern
Sister Simone Campbell
Executive Director
NETWORK, A Catholic Social Justice Lobby
Steven Schneck
Director
Institute for Policy Research and Catholic Studies
The Catholic University of America
Sister Karen M. Donahue, RSM
Justice Team
Sisters of Mercy West Midwest Community
Sister Mary Ann Hinsdale
Assoc. Prof. of Theology
Boston College
Tom Allio
Cleveland Diocesan Social Action Director (retired)
M. Shawn Copeland
Associate Professor of Theology
Boston College
Sister Maria Riley, OP
Senior Advisor
Center of Concern
Todd Whitmore
Associate Professor
Department of Theology
University of Notre Dame
Terrence W. Tilley
Avery Cardinal Dulles, S.J., Professor of Catholic Theology
Chair
Theology Department
Fordham University, Bronx, NY
Michael E. Lee
Associate Professor
Theology Department
Fordham University, Bronx, NY
Paul Lakeland
Aloysius P. Kelley S.J. Professor of Catholic Studies
Director, Center for Catholic Studies Fairfield University
Lisa Sowle Cahill
Monan Professor of Theology
Boston College
Eric LeCompte
Board Member
Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good
Tobias Winright
Associate Professor of Theological Ethics
Saint Louis University
Christopher Pramuk
Assistant Professor of Theology
Xavier University, Cincinnati
John Sniegocki
Associate Professor of Christian Ethics
Xavier University, Cincinnati
Kathleen Maas Weigert
Carolyn Farrell, BVM Professor of Women and Leadership
Loyola University, Chicago
Daniel K. Finn
Professor of Theology and Economics
St. John’s University, Minnesota
Gerald J. Beyer
Associate Professor of Christian Social Ethics
Department of Theology and Religious Studies
Saint Joseph’s University, Philadelphia
Jeannine Hill Fletcher
Associate Professor of Theology
Faculty Director
Dorothy Day Center for Service and Justice
Fordham University, Bronx, NY
Sister Mary Ann Hinsdale
Assoc. Prof. of Theology
Boston College
John Inglis
Professor and Chair
Department of Philosophy
University of Dayton
Anthony B. Smith
Associate Professor
Department of Religious Studies
University of Dayton
David O’Brien
University Professor of Faith and Culture
University of Dayton
William L. Portier
Mary Ann Spearin Chair of Catholic Theology
University of Dayton
Alex Mikulich
Research Fellow
Jesuit Social Research Institute
Loyola University, New Orleans
Susan M. Weishar
Migration Specialist
Jesuit Social Research Institute
Loyola University
Kristin Heyer
Associate Professor
Religious Studies
Santa Clara University
James Salt
Executive Director
Catholics United
Vincent Miller
Professor of Religious Studies
University of Dayton
Nancy Dallavalle
Associate Professor and Chair
Department of Religious Studies
Fairfield University
James P. Bailey
Associate Professor
Department of Theology
Duquesne University
Rev. Raymond Kemp
Director
Preaching the Just Word
Woodstock Theological Center
Georgetown University
Patrick Carolan
Executive Director
Franciscan Action Network
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