Why Campaign '08 will target the Jewish voter

By Raphael J. Sonnenshein - Jewish Journal of Greater Los Angeles, Opinion
Monday, June 30, 2008 - Web Link
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June 29, 2008

And now, the real race begins. In the struggle between Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), there will be a fierce competition for Jewish support.

Seeing potential weakness in Obama’s Jewish flank, McCain will work overtime to grab as much as he can.

At the same time, Obama finally has a direct line to compete for Jews without having to fight past Clinton. The battle began almost immediately after the last primary on June 3, when both McCain and Obama (as well as Clinton) spoke to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

While the Jewish vote does not seem likely to sway from the norm in the congressional races, where long-standing patterns of huge support for Democratic congressional candidates seem likely to continue and may help the Democrats add to their 2006 gains, in the contest for president things are not so certain.

Jews are excited, nervous, concerned and searching for the comfortable. Many are ready to vote for Obama. Some still love Clinton, and are not ready to commit to a candidate. Others feel safer with the better-known McCain.

With their historically high turnout, Jewish voters will help determine who wins the national popular vote if the race is close.

But the electoral college system skews that impact. Because of the electoral college, which awards all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate with the most popular votes, the Jewish vote will only matter directly in the presidential race if a state is heavily contested.