Will GOP's Christian base stay at home?

By Carrie Levine - Charlotte Observer
Wednesday, November 01, 2006 - Web Link
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Some disillusioned with Republican missteps

clevine@charlotteobserver.com

The Rev. Dan Burrell of Charlotte's Northside Baptist Church has lost faith in politics.

Two years ago, Burrell, an outspoken Christian conservative, registered voters, distributed Christian Coalition voter guides and urged the 3,000 members of his church to the polls.

Not this year.

Burrell said his disillusionment with the national Republican Party -- sparked by the war in Iraq, the Mark Foley scandal, and lagging action on conservative social issues -- won't stop him from voting.

But his extra effort these days is focused on saving souls, not electing politicians.

"In terms of major get-out-the-vote campaigns, frankly, we're going to be focused more on the work of the Gospel and ministering to our local community," he said.

As Election Day looms, political activists are eyeing Burrell and others like him, trying to perform a critical election-year calculation: Will the religious right turn out as strongly as in the past?

The question is an especially important one for Republicans fighting to maintain control of Congress. The party credited Christian conservative turnout two years ago as a major factor in President Bush's re-election. Their votes could prove decisive this year in an election that Democrats -- motivated by years of losses -- are eager to win.

"They are the bulwarks that the Republicans have against really catastrophic losses," said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. "If Republicans are going to hold on to really either house of Congress, it's going to be important on Election Day that conservative religious voters ... turn out in significant numbers."

Conservative religious voters will likely turn out in force in states that have gay-marriage bans on the ballot, including South Carolina, where most say it is almost certain to pass. Hotly contested races -- such as the one between U.S. Rep. Charles Taylor, a Republican, and Democrat Heath Shuler to represent the 11th Congressional District in Western North Carolina -- also are expected to generate higher turnout.

A controversial recent ruling on gay marriage in New Jersey might help energize the conservative voting base nationally. Locally, some Republican candidates for Mecklenburg County commissioner have played up comments on gay marriage by a Democratic candidate, current commissioners Chairman Parks Helms.

A new Observer/WCNC-TV Carolinas Poll shows that white Republicans who frequently attend church gave President Bush high marks on his handling of the war in Iraq, much more so than the general public. More than half of that Republican group, though, said they disapproved of the way Congress is doing its job.

Jack Joyce, 52, sits on the session of elders at Calvary Church, and said he isn't disillusioned with the Republican Party, but he's spoken to many other evangelical voters who are.

"I think they feel as though they have rallied, and they have gone to the polls and they have supported candidates and they don't always feel as though those candidates have in turn supported them," he said.

But still, Joyce said he believes evangelical voters will turn out strongly, and will support Republicans.

"Even though they're frustrated, I think most evangelicals feel they have to be a part of the civic process," he said.

Other conservative religious voters interviewed echoed Joyce, saying they will consider their faith when casting their vote.

The Rev. Loran Livingston of Central Church of God said he doesn't believe politics should be in the pulpit, though he asks the church to pray for political leaders. He said he doesn't expect much from politicians in general.

Livingston said he often is "voting for the lesser of two evils," and "will vote one party because I think it will most adhere to my fundamentalist beliefs."

Alan Cudney, 44, said he doesn't believe either political party has "a corner on morality." He said he will look carefully at each candidate -- and whether they are in accord with his views, which he said are heavily influenced by his faith -- before he decides how to vote.

"I think that it's important for every citizen to be engaged in politics," said Cudney, 44, who lives in Concord and attends Northside Baptist. He believes the Bible urges Christians to participate in government.

John Green, a Pew Forum senior fellow on religion and public life, said polls show "potential" for Christian conservatives to sit the election out, but many groups -- including the Republican Party -- are aware of that, and are using phone banks and other methods to boost turnout.

A summer poll sponsored by the Pew Forum found the number of white evangelical Protestants who said the GOP is friendly to religion had steeply declined -- falling 14 percentage points over the past year -- to 49 percent. That is still higher than the percentage that believed the Democratic Party is friendly to religion.

Most evangelical voters interviewed locally said they plan to vote, and will do their best to find candidates whose ideas they support. And large churches -- including Hickory Grove Baptist Church and Central Church of God -- are allowing N.C. Family Policy Council voter guides to be distributed at the church.

"I believe every Christian ought to get out and vote," said Carold Ownbey, 57, an insurance company customer service representative who attends Central Church of God in Charlotte.

"If we just let anyone get in office who has no values like we believe, then how can we disagree?"

Burrell said he isn't telling people to stay at home, and he plans to support local Republicans. But if only 20 percent of the Christian right have the same attitude he does, he believes it could swing the national results.

"I literally know of some people who are so angry at the Republicans, they're going to vote straight Democratic just to make a statement," he said. "I think (the Republicans) are going to be shocked on Election Day." Decision 2006