What to watch for tonight
Religion has been one of the dominant news themes in the 2008 election, not least because large blocs of religious voters are in play. Based on multiple polls from FPL and other sources, here are a few to watch for as results pour in and exit polls get crunched:
- White evangelicals: Based on the final pre-election polling, Obama looks to improve upon Kerry’s performance by as much as 20 points in key Midwestern states such and Indiana and Ohio. However, white evangelicals in the South seem poised to give McCain the same overwhelming support they gave Bush in 2004.
- Catholics: Hispanic and young Catholics support Obama by large margins. White Catholics
are still a wild card. A majority may support McCain, but Obama appears likely to gain more votes from them than did Kerry or Gore.
- Mainline Protestants: After favoring Bush by 10 points over both Gore and Kerry, recent polls show that their preference for Republicans is cooling and they are nearly a 50-50 bloc.
- Hispanic Protestants, who are largely evangelical, appear likely to swing back toward Obama this year after backing Bush in 2004.