HuffPo: The era of the evangelical voting bloc over?
The Huffington Post’s OffTheBus has an interesting post up in which forty citizen journalists interview evangelicals across the country to see if the narratives of broadening values and diminishing political clout pan out. According to their report they make contact with 90 churches and “interviews with 20 ministers and outside experts” and dispel “the notion of a heavily influential evangelical vote in Super Tuesday’s 22 state contests.”
Pastor Tom Lambelet of Faith Church in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, believes much of the perceived “fragmentation” can be attributed to the “broadening of issues, where I think there used to be a more narrow conservative view. Citing “the war, the environment, the poor…” Lambelet added that despite the conservative quality of his congregation, his younger members are increasingly less so. According to both the research and the interviews, it is in part this growing, more globally conscious generation that is fueling Democrats’ recent success in traditionally conservative territory. In the Nevada Democratic Primary, 32 percent of Clinton supporters and 49 percent of Obama supporters indicated that they attend church more than once a week, according to MSNBC exit polls; and the Pew Forum on Religion and Politics notes that “there is some indication that Democrats are doing a little better with evangelicals” thus far. The Pew Forum noted that “this pattern seems to be particularly strong amongst young evangelical voters” – voters under 30.
[snip]
Playing off what Guth terms conservative Christians’ “disappointment” with the unkept promises of the Bush presidency and dissatisfaction with the Republican field, evangelical interest in the Democratic candidates is on the rise. This year’s Democratic contenders are already drawing more interest amongst evangelicals than Gore or Kerry did at this point in 2000 and 2004, with Clinton and Obama both drawing large crowds at churches across the country. Obama has proven particularly adept, says Guth, even taking his message of social action to the tremendously popular Rick Warren at the Second Annual Global Summit on AIDS and the Church in November and December of 2006. Further, Obama has taken a slight upper hand amongst evangelicals in large part due conservative Christians’ continued unease regarding Clinton’s marriage and relationship with former President Bill Clinton.
Sure would be nice to have exit poll data on evangelicals from the Democratic primaries to see if these projections are being born out…